Military-led Madagascar draws closer to Russia

A massive billboard in Antananarivo that marks Russia's 1945 victory over Nazi Germany also advertises Moscow's diplomatic offensive in Madagascar in the year since the military takeover. 

Colonel Michael Randrianirina took power in the Indian Ocean island in October 2025, replacing then president Andry Rajoelina, who fled after weeks of youth-led protests.

Two months later, Randrianirina received a delivery of Russian drones, assault rifles and handguns.

He travelled soon afterwards to Moscow on a plane chartered by Russia to meet President Vladimir Putin.

Since then, a Russian cultural centre has opened in the capital and started Russian-language classes, also signs of Moscow's determination to build its influence in the former French colony.

The first consignment of weapons was delivered by Russian military intelligence general Andrey Averyanov, believed to command the Africa Corps that succeeded the Wagner paramilitary force and is active in several African countries.

Africa Corps has also been charged with training the Malagasy presidential guard.

The unit's in-country commander was last week interviewed on the state-run RNM radio as part of a weekly programme launched in April and devoted to Russian-Malagasy relations.

A similar programme debuted on state broadcaster TVM in July to "strengthen the rapprochement between the peoples of the two nations", according to the channel.

As interim leader until elections pledged by late next year, Randrianirina's embrace of Russia is questionable, said Transparency International vice-chair Ketakandriana Rafitoson.

"The country's diplomatic or geopolitical future is the kind of decision that should rather fall to an elected president, not a transitional regime," the political scientist told AFP. 

For Russia -- which has continued highly publicised deliveries of equipment that includes helicopters bearing the "Z" symbol associated with its invasion of Ukraine -- the partnership appears intended to establish a foothold in the Indian Ocean.

"The position is truly strategic," said Bruno Fuchs, chairman of the French parliament's foreign affairs committee.

After six meetings with the Madagascan head of state, Fuchs said he was assured there were no plans for Russia to establish a military base on the island.

"The current commitment of the Malagasy president and government is that there will be no Russian military base," he told AFP.

"It's clear. They've said so officially."

Political scientist Adrien Ratsimbaharison said he doubted a repeat of the "complete alignment with Russia" scenario seen in Africa's Sahel region, as Moscow jostles for influence in former French colonies.

"The whole elite of Madagascar is not going to allow that to happen," he told AFP, adding the country would not want to risk losing European Union funding.

"The Malagasy government can't do anything without EU money. Russia doesn't have that kind of financial capacity," he said.

The "Russia House" cultural centre, similar to those established in Sahel countries, opened in Antananarivo after a deal in September involving Moscow's state culture agency and its African Initiative media project.

African Initiative has been accused by the EU of spreading "Russian disinformation on the African continent".

Its editor-in-chief, Artem Kureev, is under EU sanctions which describe him as an agent of Russia's FSB security services.

The group has put on two trips to Moscow for Malagasy media personalities, one in August bringing together 13 influencers with a combined 3.5 million Facebook followers.

Randrianirina's visit in February was the first by a Malagasy head of state since Marxist president Didier Ratsiraka in 1978.

Last week, he received the Russian charge d'affaires to discuss preparations for a Russia-Africa summit in Moscow in October.

Also at work in Antananarivo is the Russian recruitment programme Alabuga Start, which has drawn African women to Russia with promises of scholarships, although media investigations found some ended up in drone-producing factories.

Representatives said they wanted to ensure "Madagascar does not remain on the sidelines of these opportunities", Labour Minister Franconia Mac Denis said.